Is Punjab heading for a Multi-Polar Contest in 2017 Polls ?

By Dharminder S Rataul
AMRITSAR: If the recent flexing of muscles by Aam Admi Party (AAP), despite divisions within, are any indications, the Punjab is heading for a multi-polar contest in the upcoming 2017 assembly polls. Though not for the first time, a multi-corner fight is all set to have a third force; AAP which is set to take the border state seriously and seems ready to test Punjab waters in wake of major two players; ruling SAD-BJP combine and opposition Congress facing their own internal squabbles.

The AAP’s assertions during the political gathering at Baba Bakala near here last week, send clear signals that the party which stormed Delhi last year, is eyeing Punjab for its expansion out of national capital. Though Bihar elections later this year will set many trends and also AAP’s future role in national politics, the party is gearing up for state that gave it its only four MPs during the last parliamentary polls-2014.

However ruling SAD-BJP Alliance and Congress still are the major and formidable players. The SAD-BJP’s internal strife is out in the open as Alliance is facing the history’s worst ever cracks that has been wide-cemented with BJP stalwart Arun Jaitley losing Amritsar seat in Lok Sabha last year. The blame was put on Shiromani Akali Dal (B), though the BJP itself is much to be blamed for failing to keep its urban vote bank intact.

Despite its focus on development agenda and maintenance of law and order to larger extent, the party is facing anti-incumbency and issues of drugs, politicization for bureaucracy and police department, large scale unemployment, declining economic growth are major troubles staring into the face of Akalis. The blame-game with BJP is widening the chasm and if the senior leadership did not intervene, one of the country’s most trusted Alliance in post-independent India, is all set to fall apart like house of cards.

The Congress on the other hand is divided vertically with Captain Amarinder Singh and Partap Singh Bajwa daggers’ drawn. Both Congress leaders in their fight for supremacy have ruined the party’s rank and file. The central leadership is trying to rope in some third force to take both of them along, which is to be seen in the coming days, weather the party is able to pull strings to keep its flock together but so far in the vain as party’s cadre is confused and dismayed, even though its traditional vote bank is so far intact.

The AAP meanwhile has announced that party supremo Arvind Kejriwal will be the star campaigner who will address a chain of rallies ahead of polls. There are reports of party trying to quell the ill effect of expelling Yogendra Yadav from party, who is still seen as a force who can launch and sustain some mass base movement in Punjab. There are attempts to bring Yadav back to party’s foil. The party’s decision to suspend sitting MPs Dharmvira Gandhi and Harinder Singh Khalsa for shaking hands with rebels is also being seen as an indication that the no anti-party activity will be tolerated.

Apart from this, Shiromani Akali Dal (Delhi) of Sarna brothers, Bahujan Samaj Party, Communist Party of India, various splintered Akali factions, and People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) would also be the smaller players in the polls whose vote share will effect the winning patterns even if they might not be able to make a major headway in the elections.