BY SATINDER BAINS
CHANDIGARH: The Shiromani Akali seems to have tricked the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and took the dalit commmunity for a ride while forging an allaince with BSP for assembly elections of 2022.
SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal days before announcement of political alliance with BSP, had made a public announcement of appointing dalit Deputy Chief Minister if they are voted to power. However no such promise is given to BSP that post of Deputy CM will be offerred to them.
SAD has offered 20 seats to BSP, three short of share given to BJP with which Akalis shared power in Punjab for ten years i.e. two terms. SAD had never offered the post of Deputy Chief Minister to BJP despite outright support by central BJP leadership to Badal family. Sukhbir Singh Badal himself remained the Deputy Chief Minister during second term of Parkash Singh Badal government.
Political observes are of the view that when Sukhbir Badal says a dalit will be Deputy Chief Minister in Punjab, he means a dalit leader from among the Akalis will fill the post. Sukhbir Badal has not promised Dy CM post to BSP as there was no such announcement at the time of shaking hands for political alliance.
It is understood that BSP is unlikely to gain from the alliance but it would be shot in the arm for SAD which has lost its ground in rural Punjab particularly among the Sikh community. Dalits who voted for Congress in the 2017 assembly elections are on the cross roads and an alliance with BSP may help Akalis to obtain dalit votes. There is least hope that BSP will be able to get Sikh votes in this arrangement. SAD is trying hard to revive its base in the rural Punjab.
Some fo the anti-dalit decisions taken by Capt Amarinder Singh government like delay in releasing the post matric schilarship funds, not filling SC-OBC posts and not giving due repersentation to dalit Congress leaders in the government may push the dalit vote bank away from Congress. Would these votes go to BSP or Akalis is the political twist in alliance politics. Unless there is clarity in the SAD-BSP alliance, the dalit votes may split among SAD, BSP, AAP and Congress. AAP has of late became strong claimant of dalit votes having its roots spreading among the poorest of poor.
NO promise by Sukhbir to BSP
Political observes are of the view that when Sukhbir Badal says a dalit will be Deputy Chief Minister in Punjab, he means a dalit leader from among the Akalis will fill the post. Sukhbir Badal has not promised Dy CM post to BSP as there was no such announcement at the time of shaking hands for political alliance.
In the last assembly elections BSP had obtained only about 2 percent vote share even as the dalit votes in the state are nearly 31 percent. In 1996 when SAD and BSP had contested Lok Sabha elections together, they won 11 seats eight won by SAD and three by BSP At theat time BSP had obtained about 6 percent votes due to influence of BSP founder late Kanshi Ram. BSP could never reach the mark of 1996.
As per the election commission data, the vote share of the BSP was 3.49 per cent in the 2019 Parliament elections agaisnt 1.9 per cent in 2014. If previous history is seen, SAD was never in position to form government in Punjab without the support of BJP. SAD gets 32-34 percent votes against average 38 percent by Congress. BJP has permanent vote share of 6 percent with an exception of 9.63 percent in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.
SAD and BJP together got 30.74 percent votes in 2017 assembly poll. SAD was dipped to 27.45 percent in 2019 due to blot of sacrilege of Guru Granth Sahib. Congress got lions share of 40.12 percent in 2019 Parliament poll. If BSP could match the vote percentage of BJP, only then SAD-BSP alliance could succeed. AAP which obtained 23.80 percent votes in 2017 could get only 7.38 perent in 2019 Lok Sabha poll. The performance of AAP in 2022 would make all the difference.
SAD president says he is also in talks with CPI and CPM for alliance. CPI and CPM togehter has lost ground in Punjab and they had vote share of about 1 percent. The only aim of SAD to rach out to communists is to stop going these votes to Congress. BSP, CPI, CPM and Manpreet Badal's political outfit People Party of Punjab had formed alliance and contested the 2012 assembly elections and they got about 4 percent votes. It was SAD ploy to stop disenting vote going to Congress and it helped SAD to return to power. CPI and CPM may contest separately as in any case communist votes may not shift to SAD.
Yet, another clue is that BSP is in talks with BJP for political alliance in Uttar Pradesh. Would it mean SAD and BJP would be standing on same platform even after breaking alliance in Punjab?