By Charandeep Singh
In Political Science, there is a concept of “Perception Value” and that of “Actual Value”. Let me help you explain, that with the help of an example. In 2014, it was touted to be the so called, “Modi wave” and his all-inclusive developmental plank that delivered a massive win at the hustings. A fine demagogue that he is, in the company of his capitalists acolytes Modi made the electorate believed that he has developed a mouse-trap which has the panacea of all the ills pricking Indian economy. And gullible that we Indians are, we emphatically walked into the trap. This was the “Perception Value”.
But barely ten months later, a complete wipe-out in Delhi election was considered an aberration, not a reality check. BJP mandarins, made most of the political commentators believe that AAP victory was an anomaly. Modi charisma is intact. Then came Bihar. High pitched campaign. Started on developmental agenda, crossed political rubicon and ended in communal spike. The results have left BJP red-faced. Much touted Modi equity, has lost all its premiums and there is no trace of any euphoric wave. Now, this is the “Actual Value”. If it would have been a wave it would have prolonged to a minimum of 24-30 months, but more or less it was a slight blip in the political spectrum, because of political space ceded by Congress owing to its waffle approach. It was Modi’s deft handling, of the flim-flam political discourse which made all of us believe that he is the Pharaoh, that India desperately needed. Hence, the tidal Modi wave. Evidently, as the wave has petered out what would be the cascading effect of the Bihar verdict on other five assembly elections which are due, specifically in Punjab which is on the precipice with BJP being the coalition partner? How would the political narrative roll out in times to come?
Firstly, BJP which had made the alliance irascible would smooth-en out. The leadership of BJP which had become a distant partner would again become comrade in arms. The Sadhbhawna rallies, planned across Punjab in December by the Chief Minister to which BJP had expressed its inability to participate, would now see the presence of BJP rank and file. Else, if BJP would have won in Bihar, there would have been a creation of some superficial crisis, which would have culminated in a knee jerk end to the alliance. With the victory of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar, the alliance of coalition politics is still around and would be more so relevant in Punjab.
Secondly, the repetition of Bargari like incidents becomes a distinct possibility now. Both BJP and SAD have ideologies inter-twined with religion. One is works on “Hindutva agenda” the other on “Panthic agenda”, coming together under the umbrella of “Raj Nahin Sewa”. Now, to foster the alliance is the need of the hour, Punjab at least would not be a witness to any kind of communal flashpoint. But since Punjab is already in an abyss, the invoking of 84 riots by Modi, during Bihar electioneering has added boiling oil to the already simmering cauldron in Punjab. With communal passions flared up, and radicals hogging the centre-spread of broad-sheets, this invocation is likely to go against ruling alliance. We must also keep in mind, that AAP positioning itself as a serious contender has doled out generous grants to 84 riot victims in Delhi.
Thirdly, law of diminishing returns has caught on with Modi. His over- arching presence and his electoral speeches are not a novelty anymore. So, this time the contest in Punjab would be between local leadership, not Lok Sabha Vs State , as it was made out in Bihar. With Akali Dal and BJP facing massive anti-incumbency and AAP being rudderless, if Captain Amarinder becomes the projected face of Punjab, Congress stands a fair chance. It is the return of identity politics in Bihar. Capt Amarinder with his developmental record as CM, and massive charisma can be the one to place your bets on.
Fourthly, the central government is seen as pro-business and anti-farmer. Falling in sync, is the BJP–SAD coalition, by organizing Progressive Punjab summits. What for farmers? And we must not forget that Punjab is an agrarian state, and currently faces agrarian crisis in the form of White-fly attacks on paddy and farmer compensation. Even MSP is also an issue. So the central theme, of any campaign would include measures which are suggestive as anti-dotes to farmer ills. This inclusion may very well be the trump card of the winning side.
Fifthly, as it is expected to be three cornered contest in Punjab, so every seat and every vote would count. In this a new class of voters, that is “immigrant vote”, could hold then sway. Punjab has 30 lakhs immigrants and around 4-5% vote share. This strata of electorate is the creation of sub-urban romance of politicians, since extrapolation is easy. Keeping an eye on this vote bank, Punjab government has already constituted a “Parvasi Bhalai Board”. Even Akali Dal has a “Parvasi Bhalai cell”. This 4-5% swing has the potential to become a game changer in next elections.
Sixthly, in Bihar NOTA [ none of the above] option was franchised for the first time by Election commission. Around 2.5% of the population exercised it. In a closely cornered contest, which would be most likely in Punjab the next time, 2.5% vote counts. So the selection and suitability of candidates have to be on merit. We may see a nuanced improvement in the traits of candidates facing electoral battle next time. This NOTA option, combined with immigrant vote, has the potential to be the deciding factors.
Seventhly, after witnessing the communal barbs in Bihar the minority vote in Punjab would get coagulated on perhaps might vote en-masse. 84%of the Muslim votes in Bihar went to JD(U)-RJD combine. With Punjab on the cliff again, with radicals and fringe out of the hibernation, the consolidation of minority vote coupled with anti-incumbency can be the factors which may force the ruling alliance to bite the dust.