By Charandeep Singh
Punjab, was the only saving grace for AAP in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, where it faced an un-surmountable rout pan-India. With a score of 4/13, Punjab became a shining armour for AAP. With a remarkable come back at the hustings in 2015 Delhi elections, AAP was expected to surge ahead like a “high tide” in Punjab, but its dynamism vis-à-vis Punjab is bewildering its ephemeral party cadres as well as the electorate.
With four Lok Sabha MP’s, coupled with a swell in nearly 33 of the 117 assembly constituencies and nearly 24% of the vote share in Lok Sabha polls, AAP positioned itself as a formidable alternative in Punjab. Their massive show of strength, even out numbering the Akali-BJP presence, at the Hola-Mohalla, is an indicator of AAP gaining prominence in the political theatre of Punjab. Would AAP be able to build leads on these initial encouraging trends?
If AAP has to capitalize on these leads, than on priority it needs to set its own house in order. Actually, there exists a not a leadership crisis but a leadership vacuum for AAP in the state. The views of the state leadership are always cacophonous. Infighting within the ranks, is intense and mostly the public statements are also divergent. For example, Sukhpal Khaira a prominent leader of Congress, with political lineage was keen on joining AAP. While the state convenor Sucha Singh Chotepur was in favour of his induction, Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann and Patiala MP DharamVir Gandhi openly on public forum expressed their displeasure. Thus, the proposed induction dropped out. This kind of in-congruent jousting, botes ill for the future electoral matches.
Most importantly, there is none amongst the state leadership who is a renowned public figure. Who would be the face of the party in Punjab? People of Punjab don’t know. After all with fairly high literacy rate and good per capita income, people would want their CM to be some one who has some credentials of being a public stalwart, with required experience and necessary acumen for running the administration. As of now all these answers seem to elude AAP camp.
The way AAP is running it show in Delhi, is having its cascading effect on Punjab. The way the senior leadership “ washed dirty linen” on the streets, tarnished the cultivated party image for common man. It project’s , the convenor having anarchist’s streak, which prompted even Yogendra Yadav to comment that it is, “Stalinist purge” of Kejriwal. In this process even the appointed Lokpal of AAP was sacked. All this point’s out that there is no room for divergence in views, and all need to agree on dotted lines. A pointed to this has been , suspension of two of its sitting MP’s Yogendra Yadav and Harjinder Singh Khalsa as they organised a separate conference on the ocassion of Rakhar Punia. First you give them party tickets, peeople vote for them, and when the elected MP’s articulate their opinion which is at variance with convenor , suspension is in store. Now again, in Punjab also Kejriwal will come and say, “we committed a mistake not a crime” by giving the susupended MP’s party tickets. All this points to a high command culture , which dithers from the founding principles of AAP.
Coagulation of vote-bank is of utmost importance. So currently the psephologists opine AAP is unmindful of its real vote bank. Where to concentrate, which segment to fevicol, the party is unawre of. Like in Delhi, AAP won big time, in slums, labour colonies and the fringe areas of the city, since the % share of BJP even didn’t go down because the city vote went to BJP and congress a cropper. So where to target and whom to target in Punjab, AAP leadership has to figure out. The sooner –the better, it would be for consolidating and increasing the vote-bank.
The catch for winning elections in Punjab would be to capitalise on the anti-incumbency of ruling regime and infighting of the state congress leaders. And in order to give the traditional parties a fight AAP in Punjab needs to have a robust party structure in place. The organisational structure of AAP is fledgling. Grass root level , party worker does not exist. Assembly elections of 2012 in Punjab were so intense, that the ruling dispensation had even resources marked on family to family basis.One of the reasons of AAP doing well, the second time in Delhi was the emergence of systematic and a defined party pyramid well in place before the elections, which in Punjab is certainly defunct.
Political observers point out, AAP's ideological stance remains undefined. Public at large is unaware of their vision document for Punjab. Till date there is no Punjab-centric manifesto from AAP. Subsidy culture which AAP promised in Delhi , may not work here in Punjab since Akali Dal is already providing the public with a lot of subsidies like free power, atta-dal, subsidised water, tax breaks etc. So where does AAP sneak in? Drug issue is cardinal in Punjab these days. AAP which trying to gain major foot-hold is state politics is missing from scene all together as regards drug imbroglio. Then, Punjab is an agrarian state. A burning issue Punjab, was the centre doing u-turn on its stand on the MS Swaminathan’s recommendations of fixing MSP. BJP promised to implement the recommendations in it manifesto, but now has submitted an affidavit with Supreme Court stating its inability to implement them. This issue, if picked up by AAP would catapult to lime-light in Punjab. But so far AAP has not bothered to come in public fora, on its stand on these farmer issues. Then there is no word on the cartelisation of sand and gravel mining. These issues affected the prospects of ruling dispensation, big time in last Lok Sabha polls.
AAP ushered in a new dynamism to politics which is the “aspirational politics” of the common man. End of VIP culture, Corruption, and voluntary un-employment , are the issues which are deeply intertwined and unique to this segment of Punjab. Owing to progressive de-industrialization and emigration of businesses, worthwhile job opportunities are shrinking in the state. How would employment scenario pick up, what would AAP do to usher in better employment opportunities for state. How will the Punjabi youth see “Achhe Din”?
AAP must remember that split in the Opposition votes would go in favour of the ruling party. AAP may do what the PPP did last time: help the ruling dispensation stay in power.