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Editorial

BJP’s new political strategy for Maharashtra

November 13, 2014 05:01 PM
OPED PAGE

By Deepak Parvatiyar
NEW DELHI : The way the Bharatiya Janata Party manoeuvred during the trust vote in Maharashtra Assembly on Wednesday is a lesson in political brinkmanship. 

 Consider how the party, despite being in minority, managed to get its Speaker elected unopposed and thereafter went on to win the trust vote through unconventional tactics that caught the Opposition unawares and forced them to cry foul. In the process, the BJP also promptly showed its estranged partner, the Shiv Sena –that till the last was hopeful of arm-twisting the Lotus in the name of common ideological heritage, its place in Machiavellian politics!

The BJP, with 121 MLAs (down from 122 after its MLA Govind Rathod died of a heart attack on after the election on October 26) in the 288 (effectively 287 after Rathod’s death) member Maharashtra House, required support from other parties to win the trust motion.

The party eventually won the trust vote through a voice vote but not without generating enough drama on the floor of the House and, controversy. In the process, it could manage support from unexpected quarters including the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), whose two MLAs abstained from voting against the ‘Hindutva’ party. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which was branded as Naturally Corrupt Party by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the election campaign, had already sought to bury the hatchet by declaring its unconditional outside support to the Devendra Fadnavis government. It kept its words and its 44 MLAs did not vote against the BJP on the trust motion. Seven independent MLAs, including three from Bahujan Vikas Aagadhi, besides some others voted in its favour.

The entire episode though was marred by the controversial decision of the new Speaker Haribhau Bagde, who disallowed division of votes prompting the Congress and the Shiv Sena to claim as “illegal and unconstitutional”, the way the confidence motion was passed.Former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan remarked that never before had a confidence motion been passed by a voice vote.

Questions are being raised on the legality of the Speaker’s decision. His move was ostensibly influenced by political considerations as he deftly changed the sequence of items on the day’s agenda that confounded the Opposition parties in the House. Yet, the legality of the decision may not be disputed if the Speaker’s claims that the Opposition demanded a division only after he had “moved to the next topic”. (As per law it is final when the Speaker declares that the ‘Ayes have it and the motion has been passed’).

Reports attribute the din created by Shiv Sena over the change in sequence of the schedule, to the delay by the Opposition in demanding a division of votes before the Speaker declared the motion had been passed.

The Sena created a ruckus when the Speaker allowed the trust vote before the election of the Leader of Opposition. It did prove costly at the end as the BJP benefitted from the prevailing din and won the trust motion by voice vote. Sena's Eknath Shinde, who was appointed leader of opposition after the trust vote, conceded that as they protested, it was because of the confusion that “the (trust)vote was passed".

This brings the role of the Shiv Sena under scrutiny. Wasn’t it the Sena’s poor floor management  in the Maharashtra House that allowed the BJP government sail through the trust vote?

It is well known that till the very last moment, the Sena wanted to be a part of the BJP led government. It had expressed its surprise when the BJP had withdrawn as its ally on the poll eve. It was in for another surprise when the BJP dumped it in favour of the NCP in the state.

It is often said that contemporary politics is all about expediency than ideology. The BJP’s decision to opt for the NCP puts a question mark on the stability of its government in the state as NCP has yet to prove its trustworthiness while Sena was always a trusted partner with a common umbilical cord of Hindutva. Those who thought the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party could effect a last minute truce and join hands in the government are now reminded of the old saying that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics.

But the question that merits an answer is that was the Sena leadership so naïve that it could not read the signals emanating from the BJP ranks and continued to take the Lotus for granted as an ally till it was finally shown the door? Or was it a shrewd political ploy by the Hindutva brigade considering that it now occupies even the Opposition space in Maharashtra – something that was unheard of anywhere in the country?

The United Progressive Government had shown that the warring regional parties could be formidable allies at the Centre. So have the Sena and the BJP taken a leaf out of the UPA to hoodwink others?

Indeed it has been a complex situation given the war of words between the BJP and the Sena. Remember the Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray comparing Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Afzal Khan (who was killed by the great Maratha warrior Shivaji)? Remember how Uddhav raked up the conspiracy theory of the BJP to remove Mumbai from Maharashtra and divide the state during his poll campaigns? Remember the BJP and the Sena raking up the Mumbaikar versus Gujarati (an allusion to Modi’s Gujarati origins) issue during the campaign? More recently, the Sena called back its Rajya Sabha MP Anil Desai, who was sent to attend Modi’s cabinet expansion, from the Delhi airport itself!

Given the widely perceived unforgiving nature of Modi, the writing was already on the wall!

So how could the Sena still aspire for a seat in the BJP led government in Maharashtra?Or for that matter, why should the BJP president Amit Shah call up to placate Uddhav to attend Fadnavis’s swearing-in ceremony? Uddhav on his part, despite having spelt out the decision to sit on the Opposition benches a few days ago, had kept the avenue for a compromise open. Reports suggest the BJP had assured the Sena that a seat sharing formula will be worked out after the trust vote, but Uddhav wanted it in place before the trust vote. Couldn’t he trust the BJP?

The blow-hot-blow-cold relationship between the two estranged bedfellows is indeed confounding. It raises more questions than what it answers. Severing its ties completely with the BJP implies that the Sena not just withdraws its Ministers from the Modi cabinet, but also loses majority in the cash rich Mumbai municipal corporation and other municipalities it governs. Reports also suggest an unrest among the Sena MLAs.

Obviously such prospects make the ground shaky for the Sena boss Uddhav. As he dwindles in his stand, he raises more questions. The latest in the series in that why the Sena took a last minute decision to withdraw its candidate for the Assembly speaker’s post? It was supposed to be a triangular contest for the post between the BJP, the Sena, and the Congress. The Congress had to withdraw after the NCP refused to support it, but the Sena withdrew because of a decision taken by its supremo, Uddhav!

Finally, the consequence of the BJP winning the trust vote has been a protest triggered by the Sena and the Congress against the Speaker’s decision. Yet, it has now damaged the Congress. Five of its MLAs have now been suspended for heckling and injuring the state Governor C Vidyasagar Rao inside the Vidhan Bhawan when Governor arrived to address the joint session of the legislature after the trust vote. As an all party panel now checks video footage that apparently shows involvement of a dozen more MLAs in the manhandling of the governor – unprecedented in the history of the state legislature, the BJP is the gainer and suspension of more MLAs would mean that BJP to be even more comfortably placed in the House. But can the first ever BJP government last its term? It does now depend on the NCP and ….the Sena. The Lotus though sounds confident as of now!

 
 


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